BloombergNEF Analyst Jenny Chase says the world installed 268 GW of new solar capacity in 2022, with annual installations expected to hit 315 GW in 2023. In a recent interview with pv magazine, Chase pointed to a large backlog of delivered PV modules in Europe that still have yet to be installed.
pv magazine: How did the global market for PV installations develop in 2022?
Jenny Chase: We have been surprised by the strong build in China, especially for residential and commercial – we initially expected 99 GW new build in China this year and have upped that to 126 GW (DC). Our current estimate for the year’s build is 268 GW (DC). Europe has bought a lot of modules – well over 72 GW – though we expect it has only installed around 42 GW, so there is considerable inventory.
What were the biggest surprises for you this year?
How high polysilicon and module prices have remained right up to the end of the year, indicating strong buying activity counteracting the effect of increased supply. We were also surprised the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was passed in the United States. The incentives in the law are very generous.
Will a shortage of components affect the development of global PV markets?
It’s still not as easy as it could be to get transformers and inverters, and module prices must continue to fall. But these are not major bottlenecks.
What price development do you expect in the coming year?
We expect the polysilicon price to fall from the current $35/kg to $10-$15/kg next year, and free-on-board (FOB) module prices to $0.22/W in markets without major trade barriers.
How will the expansion figures develop in 2023 throughout the world – especially in Europe?
We expect 316 GW new build worldwide, and 48 GW in Europe next year.
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